Latest News

European Outlook Less Downside Now But Caution Still Warranted

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Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.

Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds

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High quality fixed income investments can help center portfolios while offering attractive yield potential amid a likely recession in 2023.

ECB Hikes, and Indicates Higher Rates Coming

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The European Central Bank is likely to continue hiking rates next year, but the end point remains uncertain.

U.S. Inflation Eased More Than Expected in November as Fed Eyes Pause in Rate‑Hike Cycle Next Year

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Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.

Higher Bond Yields Can Be Fundamental to a Recession Investing Playbook

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How we’re thinking about investing against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and likely recession.

What to Expect From Divided Government

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A split U.S. Congress in 2023 will likely limit fiscal policy, but could be positive for equity markets.

What’s Behind the Slowdown in U.S. Inflation

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Core inflation came in below expectations for October and should moderate in 2023, but likely with bumps in the road ahead.

Peak Inflation May Hint at Peak Rates in Emerging Markets

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Inflation is receding and real interest rates are climbing in EM after a year of tightening monetary policy.

Fed Sets Up a Pause, Not a Pivot

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The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.

Continuity and Concrete Direction: Takeaways From China’s 20th Party Congress

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Stability, security and self-reliance were overarching themes from China’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. With few details disclosed on near-term supporting policies, we remain cautious on the Chinese market.

ECB Promises More Rate Hikes, But the Language Softens

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The central bank noted that substantial progress has been made in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation, and expressed concerns around growth and policy transmission lags.

Surging September CPI Bolsters Case for Further Outsize Fed Hikes

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Core inflation in the U.S. outpaced expectations for September and may fortify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve.

OPEC+ Production Cuts Show Energy Security Has a Price

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The OPEC+ plan to curb oil production complicates the global economic, inflation, and geopolitical outlook and will likely lead to higher prices for key commodities.

Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Prevailing Under Pressure

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The economic outlook remains challenging, but we believe higher yields contribute to a compelling case for bonds.

U.K. Market: Growth, But at What Price?

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U.K. financial market volatility is likely to remain high, and the longer-term outlook likely depends on future monetary and fiscal policy.

With Aggressive Rate Forecasts, Fed Seeks to Reinforce Commitment to Taming Inflation

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The Federal Reserve released new economic projections suggesting interest rate hikes will be faster and larger than previously forecast.

California Climate Bills Should Support Carbon Prices

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The state takes a long view on environmental policy, potentially benefiting California’s cap-and-trade program.

Proceed With Caution: Opportunities for Cash and Defensive Income Amid Uncertainty

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We believe short-dated bonds can offer attractive yields, flexibility, and a means to proceed cautiously as central banks continue to raise interest rates.

Hot August Inflation May Shift Fed’s Interest Rate Trajectory Higher

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The Federal Reserve may be pressured to target a higher terminal fed funds rate as it seeks to tame U.S. inflation expectations following strong price rises in August.

ECB Hikes Rates, With More to Come

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We expect the European Central Bank to continue aggressively hiking rates this year, though moderating from the 75-basis-point level.

Spotting Opportunities and Risks Across the EM Investment Universe

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Emerging market valuations appear attractive, but country-specific risks can be critical to monitor amid global inflation and rising interest rates.

Fed Affirms Hard‑Line Approach to Taming Inflation

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In Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials unequivocally emphasized their commitment to bringing inflation under control – even as the U.S. economy slows.

July U.S. CPI Offers Some Relief, But Fed Also Watches Other Inflation Indicators

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Despite price declines in many sectors, the Federal Reserve may continue its hawkish approach.

China’s Mortgage Boycott: Could Property Sector Cracks Lead to Systemic Risk?

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Our stress tests show the Chinese banking sector as a whole can absorb shocks from a severe downside scenario, but mid-sized banks and contagion pose potential risks.

Fed Aims for ‘Modestly Restrictive’ Policy to Counter Inflation

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The Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to price stability, hiking its policy rate 75 basis points again and signaling more tightening to come.

Agency MBS: Opportunities for Alpha in a Post‑QE World

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Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have faced unique challenges in 2022, but these challenges also create attractive new opportunities for active management.

What China’s Recovering Supply Chain Means for Global Inflation

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Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.

The Human Factor: How Behavioral Science Can Improve Investment Decisions

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More optimized and rational decision-making processes can give investment committees an edge.

Core Inflation Data Could Prompt Dramatic Action at the Fed

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June’s U.S. inflation data will likely force central bankers into more restrictive territory – raising the odds of recession.

Key Takeaways From PIMCO’s ESG Investing Report: Bonds for Change

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Active fixed income investors play a critical role in the transition to more sustainable companies and economies.

Shelter From the Storm

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Amid stormy markets, senior securitized credits hold potential for resilient returns.

Assessing Inflation’s Effects Across Emerging Markets

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The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.

Power of Representation: the ‘Us’es’

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To celebrate Pride Month, four PIMCO executives share their perspectives on inclusion and diversity in the workplace and the importance of visible representation.

Secular Outlook Key Takeaways: Reaching for Resilience

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We believe shorter business cycles, elevated volatility, and diminished policy responses warrant a focus on portfolio resilience over reaching for yield.

After Historic Market Moves, Outlook for Bonds Improves

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This year’s surge in yields is restoring value to the bond market, especially with the likelihood of a recession rising, although it remains uncertain when market momentum might turn.

Chinese Financials Feeling the Squeeze Amid Sluggish Credit Demand

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Following strong double-digit profit growth in FY2021, we expect Chinese banks will be less profitable this year as COVID-19 lockdowns continue to disrupt China’s economy.

Fed Battles Inflation Despite the Costs

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The Federal Reserve ratchets up the pace of monetary tightening, raising questions about the U.S. growth outlook.

European Inflation Update: Higher for Longer but Hedging Remains Well Priced

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Despite soaring inflation in Europe, hedges appear cheap

Semiconductors: A Less Cyclical Future

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The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.

Hammering Inflation With a Gavel

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The Biden administration faces rampant inflation in the U.S. but has limited tools to stem the rise in gas and grocery prices.

Credit Where Credit Is Due: Four Common Misconceptions in Public and Private Credit Markets

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Heightened market volatility has led to misconceptions about credit, in our view. We dispel four of them here.

Outflows Can Create Potential Opportunities in Municipal Marketplace

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Higher yields, wider credit spreads, and other common market reference metrics suggest relative valuations for muni bonds have become attractive.

Fed Outlook: Expeditious but Nimble

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Federal Reserve hikes policy rate 50 basis points, while remaining flexible in fighting inflation.

China’s Property Sector Slump: Is Recovery on the Horizon?

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In the absence of immediate and substantive policy easing at the national level, we believe that the sector could pose a serious risk to the government’s GDP growth target in 2022.

Bank of Canada: Hike More Now, Less Later

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The Bank of Canada embarked on a swift tightening path, but secular forces still weigh on the longer-run interest rate outlook.

Russia‑Ukraine Ramifications: Not All Trade Is Created Equal

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The countries’ weight in global trade is relatively small, but outsize exports of raw and semi-finished goods may portend price hikes across a variety of industries.

China Growth Outlook: Counting the Cost of Lockdowns

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While Beijing has set an ambitious growth target this year with a generous fiscal stimulus plan, new COVID-19 waves are adding to mounting headwinds amid a slowing global economy.

U.S. Energy Sector Poised to Regain Dominance

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As the West cuts Russian energy supplies, U.S. shale oil and natural gas producers may regain global dominance.

Yield Curve Inversions Signaling Caution Rather Than Recession

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Parsing the yield curve can lead to a variety of conclusions about whether a downturn is coming, while underscoring the importance of flexibility.

Supply Chain Crisis: Disruption Should Lead to Greater Diversification

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Supply chains set to become less dependent on China over time.